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WPI
Monday, October 31, 2011
Friday, October 28, 2011
Wednesday, October 26, 2011
Tuesday, October 25, 2011
Monday, October 24, 2011
Friday, October 21, 2011
Idea Cellular allots equity shares
The committee of Idea Cellular in its meeting on 21 October 2011 has
allotted 3,02,104 equity shares of Rs 10 each to the option grantees,
pursuant to the exercise of stock options granted under the company's
Employee Stock Option Scheme, 2006.
Thursday, October 20, 2011
Inflation
Inflation: Primary Articles 11.18% (previous week 10.60%), Food Articles 10.60% (previous week 9.32%) and Fuel, Power 15.17% (Previous week 15.10%)
Wednesday, October 19, 2011
Global News
Asian stocks rebounded from the biggest loss in two weeks,
emerging-market currencies gained and bond risk fell amid speculation
European leaders will take steps to stem the region’s debt crisis
Treasuries rose, erasing a loss from yesterday, after a Moody’s
Investors Service downgrade of Spain’s credit rating added to concern
that Europe’s sovereign- debt crisis is spreading.
Federal Reserve
Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the central bank is likely to rely more on
public communications as a policy tool as it seeks to provide clarity
about the likely future path of interest rates.
Foreign direct
investment in China grew in September at the slowest pace in three
months, as companies pared spending amid concerns that the global
recovery is faltering.
Results Today: HDFC Bank, Crompton Greaves,
Mastek, Indraprastha Gas, Hindustan Zinc, Biocon, Dish TV, Bajaj
Finance, Bajaj Finserv, Alembic, JB chemicals, Rallis India, Zee Learn,
Zee News, WWIL, Torrent Power, Navin Flourine, Everest Industries,
Manali Petro, Shree Precoated Steels, Ajmera Realty, Kirloskar
Industries, Camlin, NRC, Madras Fertilizers, Raymond, Infotech
Enterprise, Tata Investment Corp, Nippo Batteries, Excel Industries, RPG
Lifesciences, Dolphin Offshore, Supreme Petrochem, Essar Ports, Eclerx,
Hinduja Ventures, JSW Ispat
Domestic News
- GVK Power arm ups stake in MIAL to 50.5%
-SEBI may settle insider trading charges against RIL , by asking the co to pay up to Rs 2052 cr (Mint)
-RIL to bid for EL Paso shale assets in USA (TOI)
- GMR , Lanco power plants face cut in D6 Gas supply; govt to take
action as GMR’s Tanir Bavi & Lanco’s Kondapalli unit sell power at
market rates (ET)
-Glencore looks to buy 24% in Cronimet Alloys for around Rs 50-75 crore (CMP Rs 138.60, M-cap Rs 170 cr)
- Coromandel International board approves issue of bonus debentures in
the ratio of 1 debenture of Rs 15/- for every equity share held
- 3I infotech board meet on October 21 to consider rights issue of shares
-F&O ban: ABG Shipyard, Gitanjali Gems
Listing today
- Flexituff International - Issue Price Rs 155/sh
- Taksheel Solutions - Issue Price Rs 150/sh
Sun Pharma
-Makes offer to buy balance stake in Israel arm Taro subject to approval
-Offers to buy balance Taro stake at $24.50/sh
Talks to resolve Maruti standoff face fresh hurdles
-2nd round of talks Between Maruti management-workers deferred
-Deputy labour commissioner calls for fresh meeting on Wednesday
Coal Ministry says
-Power projects in 12th plan will have to import coal
-Not in position to give coal to power projects in 12th plan
Finance Secretary says
-May consider preferential share allotment for SBI
-No rights issue for SBI capital infusion
-Expect to meet within a week for final decision
-Panel met to discuss PSU bank recapitalisation
Banking Secretary says
-FY12 fund infusion in PSBs seen at Rs 10,000-12,000 crore
- BoB , BoI , Indian Bank and Syndicate Bank will see recapitalisation this fiscal
-Will infuse capital in SBI before March 31
-Current market conditions not conducive for SBI rights issue
Tuesday, October 18, 2011
RESULTS FOR 19-10-2011
Monday, October 17, 2011
RESULTS FOR 18-10-2011
October 18, 2011
Aditya Birla Money-$ |
Ador Welding |
Ankush Finstock |
ARO Granite-$ |
Arvind Prod |
Austin Engr |
Blue Star Info |
BOC India |
Chambal Fert |
Chennai Petro |
Coromandel Intl |
CRISIL |
Dhruv Estates |
EDELWEISS |
Fame India |
FICS Consl |
Goa Fruit |
HCL Tech |
HEROMOTOCO |
Himgiri Foods |
Honeywell Auto |
Indusind Bank |
Ineos Abs |
Inox Leisure |
Jindal Steel |
Kirloskar Bros Inv |
KSB Pumps |
Maharashtra Scoot |
Mount Everest Min |
NIIT Tech |
Oudh Sugar |
Patni Computer |
Paushak |
Petronet LNG |
Prism Cement |
Relic Tech |
SE Investments |
Shalimar Paint-$ |
Sharp Trading |
Simplex Realty |
SJ Corp |
Sunraj Diamond |
Sutlej Textiles |
SYMPHONY |
Tips Inds |
Torrent Pharma |
Friday, October 14, 2011
Thursday, October 13, 2011
CROSS CURRENCIES
Currency | Rupee | US $ | Euro € | UK £ | Aus $ | Japanese ¥ | Singapore $ | Renminbi | Taiwan $ |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 Rupee = | 1 | 0.0204 | 0.0148 | 0.0130 | 0.0200 | 1.5645 | 0.0260 | 0.1299 | 0.6157 |
1 US $ = | 49.1200 | 1 | 0.7280 | 0.6373 | 1.0157 | 76.8500 | 1.2784 | 6.3815 | 30.2450 |
1 Euro € = | 67.4725 | 1.3736 | 1 | 0.8754 | 1.3524 | 105.5632 | 1.7560 | 8.7658 | 41.5453 |
1 UK £ = | 77.0752 | 1.5691 | 1.1423 | 1 | 1.5449 | 120.5869 | 2.0060 | 10.0133 | 47.4580 |
1 Aus $ = | 49.8912 | 1.0157 | 0.7394 | 0.6473 | 1 | 78.0565 | 1.2985 | 6.4817 | 30.7198 |
1 Japanese ¥ = | 0.6392 | 0.0130 | 0.0095 | 0.0083 | 0.0128 | 1 | 0.0166 | 0.0830 | 0.3936 |
1 Singapore $ = | 38.4230 | 0.7822 | 0.5695 | 0.4985 | 0.7701 | 60.1142 | 1 | 4.9918 | 23.6585 |
1 Renminbi = | 7.6972 | 0.1567 | 0.1141 | 0.0999 | 0.1543 | 12.0426 | 0.2003 | 1 | 4.7395 |
1 Taiwan $ = | 1.6241 | 0.0331 | 0.0241 | 0.0211 | 0.0326 | 2.5409 | 0.0423 | 0.2110 | 1 |
Tuesday, October 11, 2011
New telecom policy, a bonanza for users
Mobile telephone users may be able to make calls
without paying roaming charges and change operator outside their circle
while retaining the same number, if draft New Telecom Policy is
implemented.
Declaring an agenda of 'One Nation-One Licence' across services, the NTP endeavours to create an investor-friendly environment by attracting additional investments in the sector, which has been marred by controversies relating to 2G scam in the recent past.
"Moving forward, we aim to create One Nation - One Licence across services and service areas. We aim to achieve One Nation - Full Mobile Number Portability and work towards One Nation - Free Roaming," Telecom Minister Kapil SIbal said while unveiling the draft New Telecom Policy 2011.
He, however, did not give any time line for implementing it and said this would be achieved as "we move forward."
"In achieving the goal of NTP-2011 revenue generation will play a secondary role," he said adding that the government would strive to bridge the digital divide between urban and rural India
Declaring an agenda of 'One Nation-One Licence' across services, the NTP endeavours to create an investor-friendly environment by attracting additional investments in the sector, which has been marred by controversies relating to 2G scam in the recent past.
"Moving forward, we aim to create One Nation - One Licence across services and service areas. We aim to achieve One Nation - Full Mobile Number Portability and work towards One Nation - Free Roaming," Telecom Minister Kapil SIbal said while unveiling the draft New Telecom Policy 2011.
He, however, did not give any time line for implementing it and said this would be achieved as "we move forward."
"In achieving the goal of NTP-2011 revenue generation will play a secondary role," he said adding that the government would strive to bridge the digital divide between urban and rural India
Market may gain for the third straight day on firm Asian stocks
The market may extend gains for the third straight day on firm Asian
stocks as a pledge by German and French leaders to stem Europe's debt
crisis boosted sentiments. Trading of S&P CNX Nifty on the Singapore
stock exchange indicates a gain of 40.50 points at the opening bell.
Key benchmark indices rose for the second straight day to settle at their highest level in 1-1/2-week on Monday, 10 October 2011 as euro-zone debt worries eased after assurances from French and German leaders that they will do everything necessary to support Europe's banks. The BSE Sensex was up 324.69 points or 2% to 16,557.23, its highest closing level since 29 September 2011.
Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) bought shares worth Rs 211.71 crore on Monday as per provisional figures on stock exchanges. FIIs had bought shares worth Rs 491.55 crore on Friday, 7 October 2011.
The near-term major trigger for the market is Q2 September 2011 results. The results are expected to be muted-to-weak due slower volume growth due to slowdown in domestic demand, higher input costs, rising wages, higher interest rates and slowdown in investment growth. Advance tax data from top 100 companies corroborates this view. The advance tax payment by top 100 companies rose a modest 9.9% in Q2 September 2011 from a year ago against 19% growth in Q1 June 2011, suggesting corporate profit growth is likely to be muted in the second quarter.
Among the big companies that have paid lower advance tax, indicating a drop in profits, include State Bank of India (SBI), Maruti Suzuki India and state-run Neyveli Lignite Corporation. SBI's advance tax payment declined 14.2% to Rs 1650 crore in Q2 September 2011. Maruti's tax payment fell 55.8% to Rs 120 crore. Neyveli Lignite tax payment plunged 50.1% to Rs 66 crore. But, Reliance Industries' (RIL) advance tax payment jumped 37.6% to Rs 1800 crore, hinting at good Q2 results from the diversified firm.
Investors will closely watch the management commentary at the time of announcement of Q2 September 2011 results, which will provide cues on futures earnings outlook. IT bellwether Infosys kickstarts the Q2 September 2011 earnings season on 12 October 2011. Reliance Industries unveils Q2 results on 15 October 2011. IT major TCS, housing finance major HDFC and media major Zee Entertainment Enterprises unveil Q2 results on 17 October 2011. Jindal Steel & Power, Jet Airways (India), Hero MotoCorp and HCL Technologies unveil quarterly results on 18 October 2011. HDFC Bank unveils Q2 results on 19 October 2011.
Bajaj Auto, Cairn India, UltraTech Cement, Exide Industries and Thermax unveil quarterly results on 20 October 2011. Engineering & construction major L&T, paints major Asian Paints and Godrej Consumer Products reveal Q2 results on 21 October 2011. Axis Bank unveils Q2 results on 22 October 2011. Titan Industries unveils Q2 results on 24 October 2011. NTPC and Dr. Reddy's Lab unveil Q2 results on 25 October 2011. Maruti Suzuki reports Q2 results on 29 October 2011. ICICI Bank, Dabur India, Colgate Palmolive (India) and BPCL unveil Q2 results on 31 October 2011. Cement major ACC and Aditya Birla Nuvo unveil quarterly results on 1 November 2011. Ranbaxy Laboratories unveils quarter results on 9 November 2011.
Lower global commodity prices may ease pressure on corporate profit margins arising from higher raw material prices and at the macro level it could help ease inflation pressure. However, a weak rupee will offset the benefit of the recent steep fall in global commodity prices triggered by global growth worries. Most commodities imported by India, particularly oil, are denominated in dollars making these expensive for India. The rupee slumped 8.8% percent in July to September 2011 to 48.97/98, its largest quarterly fall since the same period in 2008. The Standard & Poor's GSCI Index of 24 commodities, hit a 10-month low last week.
The market regulator Securities and Exchange Board of India recently set a minimum net worth of Rs 100 crore for companies that wish to issue structured products or market-linked debentures to raise funds. Sebi also set the minimum size for such issues at Rs 10 lakh. Market-linked debentures are hybrid products which have the features of usual debt securities, but offer market-linked returns like an exchange-traded derivative. The issuer company will have to appoint a third party, a credit-rating company registered with the regulator, which will provide the value of the security at least once a week, Sebi said in a circular.
The government last month raised the limit of overseas borrowing for companies to $750 million from $500 million. Indian companies can also now raise loans up to $1 billion in Chinese yuan.
Given the lackluster initial FII response to the government's sharply raising the ceiling of FII investment in long-term corporate bonds issued by the companies in the infrastructure sector in March 2011, the government on 12 September 2011, further relaxed the norms on FII investment in such bonds. Sebi had in early August 2011 allowed Qualified Foreign Investors (QFIs) to subscribe to Mutual Fund Debt Schemes which invest in the infrastructure sector subject to a total overall ceiling of $3 billion within the total ceiling of $25 billion.
The government, recently raised its borrowing target for the current fiscal year by Rs 52800 crore, surprising the market and fueling worries that it may even overshoot the new estimate because of muted revenue growth amid a slowing economy and swelling subsidies. The government will borrow Rs 2.2 lakh crore during October 2011-March 2012 period, or the second half of the fiscal year, compared with the target of Rs 1.67 lakh crore announced in budget in February 2011. C. Rangarajan, Chairman of the Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council, on 29 September 2011 said it is going to be difficult to achieve fiscal deficit target of 4.6% of GDP for the year ending March 2012.
The government's new borrowing programme may crowd out private borrowers who come into the market in the second half of the year. Credit growth normally picks up after October every year when the busy season starts.
Atsi Sheth, a New York-based vice president and senior analyst at Moody's Investors Service said in a media interview recently that Moody's is unlikely to change its rating outlook on India for now, though the extent of the increase in the government's borrowing target is a surprise. The possibility of fiscal slippage is, however, already factored into the sovereign rating, Sheth said.
Standard & Poor's Ratings Services on 3 October 2011 said it is maintaining its view that India will struggle to meet its fiscal deficit target. Takahira Ogawa, director of Sovereign and International Public Finance Ratings at S&P said India must prove its intent to continue with the process of fiscal consolidation in the medium term.
Monsoon rains at the end of the June-September season were 1% above the 50-year average, raising hopes of improved crop supplies at a time when the country is battling high food prices. The rains normally start subsiding in the first week of September, but they continued two weeks longer this year. This has boosted the prospects of not only summer-sown crops such as rice, but also winter-sown staples like wheat, because of good soil moisture.
Sowing of winter crops usually starts in October and picks up between the end of November and the first half of December. Apart from wheat, rapeseed and pulses are among other important crops grown during the winter season. India is aiming for a record foodgrain output of 245 million tons in the crop year that started on 1 July.
Rangarajan on 29 September 2011 said there has to be definite signs of inflation falling before the Reserve Bank of India can reverse its current policy. Reserve Bank of India (RBI) deputy governor Subir Gokarn on 28 September 2011 said poor supply responses to rising demand for protein-rich food aren't helping to lower the inflation rate. His comment underscores the central bank's growing dismay over the government's loose fiscal stance that is diluting monetary policy moves and weakening its battle against inflation. Energy prices have remained very steady. I think (it) is a huge problem to deal with because it certainly reduces the space that monetary policy has, Mr. Gokarn said at a conference.
Food inflation accelerated in the week ended 24 September 2011, reflecting prolonged inflationary pressures and mounting pressure on the central bank to continue its rate increase cycle. Wholesale price index-based inflation quickened to 9.41% from a year earlier, compared with 9.13% the previous week, according to data issued on Friday, 7 October 2011, by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry. On a week-on-week basis, the food articles index rose a marginal 0.2% to 197.7, recording the eighth successive week of rising prices.
Data on industrial production for August 2011 due on Wednesday, 12 October 2011 and that on wholesale price index for September 2011 due on Friday, 14 October 2011, could provide cues on the Reserve Bank of India's likely monetary policy stance at the half-yearly review of the monetary policy on 25 October 2011.
RBI said at a monetary policy review on 16 September 2011 that it is imperative to persist with the current anti-inflationary stance because a premature change in the policy stance could harden inflationary expectations, thereby diluting the impact of past policy actions. The RBI raised repo rate by 25 basis points on 16 September 2011.
Going forward, the stance of the monetary will be influenced by signs of downward movement in the inflation trajectory, to which the moderation in demand is expected to contribute, and the implications of global developments, RBI said in its 16 September 2011 policy statement. The overall tone of the RBI's latest policy was softer than the previous policy announcement which was extremely hawkish.
Inflation in India remains high and will probably remain in a range of 9% to 10% until November 2011, Gokarn said last month. RBI said on 16 September 2011 that corporate margins moderated across several sectors in Q1 June 2011 compared to levels in Q4 March 2011. However, barring a few sectors, significant pass-through of rising input costs is still visible, RBI said.
RBI governor D Subbarao, recently said inflation rate remains above the level the central bank deems acceptable. Inflation has been fairly stubborn, Subbarao said in New York. Above a threshold, you can't accept high inflation to have higher growth, he said, adding that the price-rise limit is as much as 6% for the nation. A rate of 4% to 6% is the short-term comfort range for inflation, Subbarao said. He said the central expects inflation to slow by March 2012, but more slowly than initially expected. Intervention in forex markets brings unexpected consequences, Subbarao said. RBI is scheduled to announce the half-yearly review of the monetary policy on 25 October 2011.
India's services sector contracted for the first time in more than two years as new business dried up and expectations weakened amid concern over a flagging world economy, a survey showed on 5 October 2011. The seasonally adjusted HSBC Markit Business Activity Index, based on a survey of around 400 firms, plunged in September to 49.8 -- its lowest reading since April 2009 -- and below the 50 mark which separates growth from contraction.
The slowdown in growth has continued to broaden with the service sector seeing a further slowdown in economic momentum, HSBC economist Leif Eskesen said. The new business sub-index sank to a 28-month low of 51.6 in September, down from 54.9 in August. The weak expansion in new business -- the main cause of the stagnation in activity -- meant employment levels fell for a third consecutive month. Despite harsh conditions firms were able to pass on rising input costs to customers, albeit at a slightly lower pace than in August.
The growth in manufacturing sector nearly stalled in September 2011, hitting its weakest spot since March 2009 on slowing output and orders growth following a series of interest rate hikes, data showed on 3 October 2011. The HSBC Markit India Manufacturing PMI fell more than two points to 50.4 in September 2011 from 52.6 in August 2011, very close to the 50 mark which divides growth and contraction. The output index plunged by its biggest amount in one month since November 2008, to 51.1 from 56.
Exports jumped 44.25% to $24.3 billion in August 2011 from a year earlier, while imports for the month rose 41.82% to $38.4 billion, leaving a trade deficit of $14 billion, the latest government data showed.
Asian shares rose on Tuesday on hopes that European leaders are finally taking action to protect the continent's banks from its festering sovereign debt crisis. The key benchmark indices in China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan rose by between 1.86% to 3.29%.
U.S. stocks jumped 3% on Monday, extending gains into a second week as a pledge by German and French leaders boosted hopes that the euro-zone debt crisis may be resolved. German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy promised on Sunday to unveil a comprehensive new package to ease the euro zone's debt crisis.
Key benchmark indices rose for the second straight day to settle at their highest level in 1-1/2-week on Monday, 10 October 2011 as euro-zone debt worries eased after assurances from French and German leaders that they will do everything necessary to support Europe's banks. The BSE Sensex was up 324.69 points or 2% to 16,557.23, its highest closing level since 29 September 2011.
Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) bought shares worth Rs 211.71 crore on Monday as per provisional figures on stock exchanges. FIIs had bought shares worth Rs 491.55 crore on Friday, 7 October 2011.
The near-term major trigger for the market is Q2 September 2011 results. The results are expected to be muted-to-weak due slower volume growth due to slowdown in domestic demand, higher input costs, rising wages, higher interest rates and slowdown in investment growth. Advance tax data from top 100 companies corroborates this view. The advance tax payment by top 100 companies rose a modest 9.9% in Q2 September 2011 from a year ago against 19% growth in Q1 June 2011, suggesting corporate profit growth is likely to be muted in the second quarter.
Among the big companies that have paid lower advance tax, indicating a drop in profits, include State Bank of India (SBI), Maruti Suzuki India and state-run Neyveli Lignite Corporation. SBI's advance tax payment declined 14.2% to Rs 1650 crore in Q2 September 2011. Maruti's tax payment fell 55.8% to Rs 120 crore. Neyveli Lignite tax payment plunged 50.1% to Rs 66 crore. But, Reliance Industries' (RIL) advance tax payment jumped 37.6% to Rs 1800 crore, hinting at good Q2 results from the diversified firm.
Investors will closely watch the management commentary at the time of announcement of Q2 September 2011 results, which will provide cues on futures earnings outlook. IT bellwether Infosys kickstarts the Q2 September 2011 earnings season on 12 October 2011. Reliance Industries unveils Q2 results on 15 October 2011. IT major TCS, housing finance major HDFC and media major Zee Entertainment Enterprises unveil Q2 results on 17 October 2011. Jindal Steel & Power, Jet Airways (India), Hero MotoCorp and HCL Technologies unveil quarterly results on 18 October 2011. HDFC Bank unveils Q2 results on 19 October 2011.
Bajaj Auto, Cairn India, UltraTech Cement, Exide Industries and Thermax unveil quarterly results on 20 October 2011. Engineering & construction major L&T, paints major Asian Paints and Godrej Consumer Products reveal Q2 results on 21 October 2011. Axis Bank unveils Q2 results on 22 October 2011. Titan Industries unveils Q2 results on 24 October 2011. NTPC and Dr. Reddy's Lab unveil Q2 results on 25 October 2011. Maruti Suzuki reports Q2 results on 29 October 2011. ICICI Bank, Dabur India, Colgate Palmolive (India) and BPCL unveil Q2 results on 31 October 2011. Cement major ACC and Aditya Birla Nuvo unveil quarterly results on 1 November 2011. Ranbaxy Laboratories unveils quarter results on 9 November 2011.
Lower global commodity prices may ease pressure on corporate profit margins arising from higher raw material prices and at the macro level it could help ease inflation pressure. However, a weak rupee will offset the benefit of the recent steep fall in global commodity prices triggered by global growth worries. Most commodities imported by India, particularly oil, are denominated in dollars making these expensive for India. The rupee slumped 8.8% percent in July to September 2011 to 48.97/98, its largest quarterly fall since the same period in 2008. The Standard & Poor's GSCI Index of 24 commodities, hit a 10-month low last week.
The market regulator Securities and Exchange Board of India recently set a minimum net worth of Rs 100 crore for companies that wish to issue structured products or market-linked debentures to raise funds. Sebi also set the minimum size for such issues at Rs 10 lakh. Market-linked debentures are hybrid products which have the features of usual debt securities, but offer market-linked returns like an exchange-traded derivative. The issuer company will have to appoint a third party, a credit-rating company registered with the regulator, which will provide the value of the security at least once a week, Sebi said in a circular.
The government last month raised the limit of overseas borrowing for companies to $750 million from $500 million. Indian companies can also now raise loans up to $1 billion in Chinese yuan.
Given the lackluster initial FII response to the government's sharply raising the ceiling of FII investment in long-term corporate bonds issued by the companies in the infrastructure sector in March 2011, the government on 12 September 2011, further relaxed the norms on FII investment in such bonds. Sebi had in early August 2011 allowed Qualified Foreign Investors (QFIs) to subscribe to Mutual Fund Debt Schemes which invest in the infrastructure sector subject to a total overall ceiling of $3 billion within the total ceiling of $25 billion.
The government, recently raised its borrowing target for the current fiscal year by Rs 52800 crore, surprising the market and fueling worries that it may even overshoot the new estimate because of muted revenue growth amid a slowing economy and swelling subsidies. The government will borrow Rs 2.2 lakh crore during October 2011-March 2012 period, or the second half of the fiscal year, compared with the target of Rs 1.67 lakh crore announced in budget in February 2011. C. Rangarajan, Chairman of the Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council, on 29 September 2011 said it is going to be difficult to achieve fiscal deficit target of 4.6% of GDP for the year ending March 2012.
The government's new borrowing programme may crowd out private borrowers who come into the market in the second half of the year. Credit growth normally picks up after October every year when the busy season starts.
Atsi Sheth, a New York-based vice president and senior analyst at Moody's Investors Service said in a media interview recently that Moody's is unlikely to change its rating outlook on India for now, though the extent of the increase in the government's borrowing target is a surprise. The possibility of fiscal slippage is, however, already factored into the sovereign rating, Sheth said.
Standard & Poor's Ratings Services on 3 October 2011 said it is maintaining its view that India will struggle to meet its fiscal deficit target. Takahira Ogawa, director of Sovereign and International Public Finance Ratings at S&P said India must prove its intent to continue with the process of fiscal consolidation in the medium term.
Monsoon rains at the end of the June-September season were 1% above the 50-year average, raising hopes of improved crop supplies at a time when the country is battling high food prices. The rains normally start subsiding in the first week of September, but they continued two weeks longer this year. This has boosted the prospects of not only summer-sown crops such as rice, but also winter-sown staples like wheat, because of good soil moisture.
Sowing of winter crops usually starts in October and picks up between the end of November and the first half of December. Apart from wheat, rapeseed and pulses are among other important crops grown during the winter season. India is aiming for a record foodgrain output of 245 million tons in the crop year that started on 1 July.
Rangarajan on 29 September 2011 said there has to be definite signs of inflation falling before the Reserve Bank of India can reverse its current policy. Reserve Bank of India (RBI) deputy governor Subir Gokarn on 28 September 2011 said poor supply responses to rising demand for protein-rich food aren't helping to lower the inflation rate. His comment underscores the central bank's growing dismay over the government's loose fiscal stance that is diluting monetary policy moves and weakening its battle against inflation. Energy prices have remained very steady. I think (it) is a huge problem to deal with because it certainly reduces the space that monetary policy has, Mr. Gokarn said at a conference.
Food inflation accelerated in the week ended 24 September 2011, reflecting prolonged inflationary pressures and mounting pressure on the central bank to continue its rate increase cycle. Wholesale price index-based inflation quickened to 9.41% from a year earlier, compared with 9.13% the previous week, according to data issued on Friday, 7 October 2011, by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry. On a week-on-week basis, the food articles index rose a marginal 0.2% to 197.7, recording the eighth successive week of rising prices.
Data on industrial production for August 2011 due on Wednesday, 12 October 2011 and that on wholesale price index for September 2011 due on Friday, 14 October 2011, could provide cues on the Reserve Bank of India's likely monetary policy stance at the half-yearly review of the monetary policy on 25 October 2011.
RBI said at a monetary policy review on 16 September 2011 that it is imperative to persist with the current anti-inflationary stance because a premature change in the policy stance could harden inflationary expectations, thereby diluting the impact of past policy actions. The RBI raised repo rate by 25 basis points on 16 September 2011.
Going forward, the stance of the monetary will be influenced by signs of downward movement in the inflation trajectory, to which the moderation in demand is expected to contribute, and the implications of global developments, RBI said in its 16 September 2011 policy statement. The overall tone of the RBI's latest policy was softer than the previous policy announcement which was extremely hawkish.
Inflation in India remains high and will probably remain in a range of 9% to 10% until November 2011, Gokarn said last month. RBI said on 16 September 2011 that corporate margins moderated across several sectors in Q1 June 2011 compared to levels in Q4 March 2011. However, barring a few sectors, significant pass-through of rising input costs is still visible, RBI said.
RBI governor D Subbarao, recently said inflation rate remains above the level the central bank deems acceptable. Inflation has been fairly stubborn, Subbarao said in New York. Above a threshold, you can't accept high inflation to have higher growth, he said, adding that the price-rise limit is as much as 6% for the nation. A rate of 4% to 6% is the short-term comfort range for inflation, Subbarao said. He said the central expects inflation to slow by March 2012, but more slowly than initially expected. Intervention in forex markets brings unexpected consequences, Subbarao said. RBI is scheduled to announce the half-yearly review of the monetary policy on 25 October 2011.
India's services sector contracted for the first time in more than two years as new business dried up and expectations weakened amid concern over a flagging world economy, a survey showed on 5 October 2011. The seasonally adjusted HSBC Markit Business Activity Index, based on a survey of around 400 firms, plunged in September to 49.8 -- its lowest reading since April 2009 -- and below the 50 mark which separates growth from contraction.
The slowdown in growth has continued to broaden with the service sector seeing a further slowdown in economic momentum, HSBC economist Leif Eskesen said. The new business sub-index sank to a 28-month low of 51.6 in September, down from 54.9 in August. The weak expansion in new business -- the main cause of the stagnation in activity -- meant employment levels fell for a third consecutive month. Despite harsh conditions firms were able to pass on rising input costs to customers, albeit at a slightly lower pace than in August.
The growth in manufacturing sector nearly stalled in September 2011, hitting its weakest spot since March 2009 on slowing output and orders growth following a series of interest rate hikes, data showed on 3 October 2011. The HSBC Markit India Manufacturing PMI fell more than two points to 50.4 in September 2011 from 52.6 in August 2011, very close to the 50 mark which divides growth and contraction. The output index plunged by its biggest amount in one month since November 2008, to 51.1 from 56.
Exports jumped 44.25% to $24.3 billion in August 2011 from a year earlier, while imports for the month rose 41.82% to $38.4 billion, leaving a trade deficit of $14 billion, the latest government data showed.
Asian shares rose on Tuesday on hopes that European leaders are finally taking action to protect the continent's banks from its festering sovereign debt crisis. The key benchmark indices in China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan rose by between 1.86% to 3.29%.
U.S. stocks jumped 3% on Monday, extending gains into a second week as a pledge by German and French leaders boosted hopes that the euro-zone debt crisis may be resolved. German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy promised on Sunday to unveil a comprehensive new package to ease the euro zone's debt crisis.